Ayman Nour, the public face of Egypt's liberal, centrist and secular opposition, was released from prison in February this year (officially for health reasons, Nour being diabetic), prompting speculation as to why the Egyptian government had seen fit to allow one of its most vocal critics back into the political spotlight.

Nour, former trial lawyer, founded the al-Ghad (tomorrow) Party in October 2004 as a vehicle to contest the 2005 Presidential elections against serial incumbent Hosni Mubarak. An independent member of the Egyptian Parliament, Nour enjoyed parliamentary immunity, a cover which enabled him to launch more overt attacks on the ruling Party (NDP) and President that is generally not possible in general Egyptian political discourse due to the on-going state of emergency in the country since the assassination of former President Sadat in 1981.

In January 2005, Nour was stripped of his parliamentary immunity and arrested on charges of fraud relating to allegations that the Ghad party had forged signatures during its registration. These charges stemmed from recent changes to the Egyptian constitution that, on the surface at least, appeared to open up the political system to more pluralist participation. However, Nour's arrest, and the scuttling of the al-Ghad Party as a focus for liberal opposition in Egypt, belied the on-going maintenance of real power in the hands of the NDP and Mubarak.

Recently interviewed by Al-Ahram Weekly, Nour claims that his release was not part of a deal with the Egyptian government; however, he hinted that a visit by Mubarak to Washington scheduled in April may have expedited the process. This is supported by changes in Washington since 2006 where the Democrat-controlled Congress had pushed to make further US-Egyptian relations conditional on key issues, one of them being the release of Nour.

Despite this apparent conciliatory move, the release of Nour does not necessarily flag a real opening for the embattled liberal opposition in Egypt. It is a movement that is inherently limited in terms of popular support and has been easily targetted on the grounds that it is a front for external (read US) interests in Egypt. Nour's release was a political move, one that comes at a time when other key liberal figures and movements are in disarray. The Kefaya ("Enough") activist network has been struggling since its heyday opposing the 2005 Presidential elections and constitutional referendum whilst academic/activist Saad Eddin Ibrahim remains in exile in the US.

The Mubarak regime represesnts the type of autocratic resilience that characterises so many regional governments, a means of survival that operates largely through manipulating and dividing opposition, weakening formal political institutions whilst exerting real power through un-official, "shadow" institutions and patronage networks. Nour's release, whilst significant, is a calculated step on the part the Mubarak government to distract attention and pre-occupy the opposition.