
Whilst overtures were made during what seemed an endless Presidential campaign through 2008 as to a change in direction in US Middle East policy under an Obama administration, intrigue has remained as to what the first moves and first priorities of the new foreign policy team would be.
Some light was shed on this during Obama’s first televised interview as President with Dubai-based Al-Arabiyya TV. Apart from the obvious significance of the message and the medium in setting a new normative tone for Obama’s foreign policy, did this appearance give any specific indication of where the administration would head? Three specific positives can be drawn from the interview; however, these are tempered by an over-arching fragility to this new approach.
Obama’s general statements signalled an important change of rhetoric, where ‘… all to often the United States starts by dictating – in the past on some of these issues – and we don’t always know all the factors that are involved. So let’s listen …’. In addition, a ‘… more holistic …’ form of regional negotiation was signalled, where Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arab issues must be dealt with together.
However, by engaging with regional issues in toto, this policy runs the very real risk of being too ambitious. Such a policy of engaging all parties will require substantial change in US policy to the region, and to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict specifically; namely a reconstruction of the US-Israeli relationship. To this point, neither Obama, Clinton or new Middle East envoy George Mitchell have signalled that this will take place.
Whilst Obama does have a greater degree of political capital than the previous administration, a measure of wiggle room from within the Muslim world where he will be afforded some time to achieve his ambitious goals, this may very easily evaporate, leaving him and his foreign policy team open to the same charges of all talk and no action as have been laid at the Bush administration and the ‘Freedom Agenda’.
Hence, the very theme of change that helped launch Obama into the White House requires the new administration to launch an innovative foreign policy direction equally radical to the changes of the previous administration. As Obama, Clinton and Mitchell may find, it is much easier to push Humpty off the wall than to put him back together again.